Thursday, September 4, 2014

2014 Season Predictions

It has been a long time since I made a post on my blog.  And I still won't be posting very often but I wanted to be sure to get my thoughts on the 2014 down in writing before the season kicks off on Sunday.

A lot has happened since yet another heartbreaking season finale last season.  Demarcus Ware is gone.  Jason Hatcher is gone.  Sean Lee is injured, again.  There are a lot of fresh faces on the defense.  I'm not sure they are upgrades over Ware and Hatcher but they are upgrades over most of the street free agents that finished the season on the defense last year.

But let's be real about this defense.  The Cowboys have a serious lack of premier talent on the defensive side of the ball.  They did add Henry Melton who the Cowboys seem to be hoping can be a disruptive force in the middle of the defensive line.  But he is coming off of a torn ACL and didn't play in the preseason so we really don't know what to expect there.  They drafted Demarcus Lawrence but he of course broke his foot during training camp and will miss at least the first half of the season.  So we can't expect the defense to be much more than a below average defense at best.

The good news is that the offense appears to be stacked and could potentially be one of the five best offensive units in the league.  A few years ago the offensive line was a joke.  Now they have the players to be one of the best lines in the league.  Does that mean the Cowboys will actually commit to the run?  Time will tell.  But we know the passing game will be tough to stop.  Dez Bryant is clearly a top 3 receiver now and is a player that makes the entire defense pay attention to him.  Terrance Williams is a perfect #2 receiver and Jason Witten is still playing at an all-pro level.

One factor that many people are forgetting when evaluating the Cowboys is their outstanding special teams.  Dwayne Harris is one of the best returners in the league and Dan Bailey is about as good as it gets at kicker.  If Harris can make a big play here and there he can completely change the complexion of a game.  The return game is one place where the Cowboys will have an advantage against just about any opponent.

So what does all of this mean for the 2014 Dallas Cowboys?  I'm certainly not expecting a Super Bowl run but I also don't expect the Cowboys to be nearly as bad as the "experts" are predicting.  As long as Tony Romo can stay healthy I think the Cowboys can stay in the game with any team they play.  The win total this year will hinge on whether the defense can at least be a middle of the pack crew.  If they are at least a little better then the Cowboys could win as many as 10 games.  If they are as bad or worse than last year then we are probably looking at only 6-8 wins.  The most likely outcome that the win total will be somewhere in the middle.

I hate to say it because I am so sick of it.  But I am predicting another 8-8 season for the 2014 Dallas Cowboys.

Saturday, September 7, 2013

Season Predictions

I know I haven't posted during the entire offseason but I still wanted to get in at least one post about my predictions for this season.  I won't be posting on my blog throughout the season on a regular basis due to a lot of things going on in my life.  But I will try to post something here and there when I have time.  I would hate to put up half-hearted efforts on my blog after all of my years of hard work so I'll instead post quality over quantity.  Hopefully next season I'll be back in action full force.

With all of that said I do have a relatively positive feeling about the Cowboys heading into the season.  I know there has been a lot of talk about the size of the new contract that Tony Romo received but I think his contract is just the going rate for a quality quarterback these days.  And I really believe that by the end of the season everyone will understand why the Cowboys invested in Romo so heavily.  I have already seen a lot of signs during the preseason of a quarterback who is really in command of his team both on the field and on the sidelines.

The offensive line is far from perfect but it has undergone some major upgrades this offseason.  Travis Frederick will keep pressure from getting in Romo's face up the middle and Brian Waters is going to be a major upgrade at guard when he gets into game shape.  I feel confident that the Cowboys will have a vastly improved running game and that will help balance out the offense when compared to the pass happy attack the Cowboys were forced to run last season.

Dez Bryant has slowly morphed into the beast of a player he looked like he could be when the Cowboys drafted him a few years ago.  If he can stay healthy he will be nearly impossible to defend.  And what makes that even better is if defenses decide to focus in on Dez then the rest of the passing game will open up for Jason Witten and Miles Austin.  DeMarco Murray will also benefit if the defense is forced to focus too much on Dez.

On defense I think the Cowboys have found a scheme that will finally force some turnovers.  The big problem right now is the health of the defensive line but hopefully they can get Spencer back soon and Ratliff later in the season.  Either way it seems that the defense is much more focused on forcing turnovers which we all know are the biggest factors in the outcome of NFL games.  Sean Lee should flourish in this defense.  And Bruce Carter, Demarcus Ware, Brandon Carr, and Morris Claiborne should all be impact players. 

I'm not convinced this is a Super Bowl team unless everything goes just right during the season.  But I do expect the Cowboys to be a solid 10-6 team capable of making a decent playoff run.  I think the Romo haters are in for a long season because Romo is going to play great all year long.  They key to how deep into the playoffs this team can go will be the health of the roster.  I think a lot of people are overlooking the Cowboys right now due to their recent struggles but I expect by midseason we will be hearing a lot of praise for the Dallas Cowboys.

Saturday, December 29, 2012

This Seems Familiar

Twelve months after losing to the New York Giants to end the 2011 season with the NFC East title on the line the Cowboys are back in the same situation again.  The only difference this time around is the opponent.  The Cowboys will get a second shot at RGIII tomorrow night.  It hasn't been that long since the Thanksgiving game but the Cowboys will have many of their injured players back for this game that weren't there the first time around

The offensive line was a mess with injuries.  This time Tyron Smith and Ryan Cook will both be starting and the offensive line won't have to shuffle around to fill in the missing pieces.  Miles Austin will hopefully last longer than he did in the first game.  And, most importantly, DeMarco Murray will be on the field and probably the healthiest he has been since the season started. 

To me the deciding factor in the first game was turnovers.  The Cowboys were able to move the ball against the Redskins with ease in the first game.  The problem was the Cowboys dug a 28-3 hole in the first half thanks to three turnovers.  The Cowboys need to protect the ball this time around

Defensively the Cowboys gave up way too many big plays to RGIII and the Redskins.  More than anything else the Cowboys need to force the Redskins to earn their points.  The key will be forcing field goals and limiting touchdowns.  The defense is too beat up to be expected to shut down the Redskins.  But they can play sound assignment football and limit the big plays.  And I want to see Morris Claiborne and Brandon Carr willing to take a few shots at picking off some passes.  Turnovers will decide the game.  The Cowboys must win the turnover battle.

The special teams match up is very even.  Both teams have good kickers and dangerous returners.  Dwayne Harris is showing a knack for making big return plays at critical moments.  A big return or two could really turn the tide in this game.

No matter how this game plays out you have to give the Cowboys a lot of respect for battling to get back into this position.  With all of the injuries on defense and the Josh Brent tragedy there have been countless reasons for the Cowboys to give up on the season.  But they haven't.  And they seem determined to prove everyone wrong.

I can't even explain how excited I will be if the Cowboys can find a way to get into the playoffs.  I really think they can beat the Seahawks if they get another shot at them.  This time the game would be a home game and I think that would be the difference. 

I hope Jason Garrett and Rob Ryan have a better game plan this time around.  Rob Ryan appeared to figure some things out in the second half of the first game against RGIII.  Hopefully he can get the defense going earlier in this game.  And the offense has got to get out fast and score touchdowns.  It is going to take a lot of points to win this game.  The play calling should reflect that.

This is the moment that we dream about as fans.  Don't forget to enjoy the moment.  I'm expecting the Cowboys to win but it could very easily be the last game we get to see the Cowboys play for about 8 months.  Savor the moment!

Friday, December 21, 2012

The Fun Continues

I'll be the first to admit that the season looked like a lost cause six weeks ago after the Cowboys lost to the Falcons to drop to 3-5 and the news came out that Bruce Carter was out for the season.  How could this team with an inconsistent offense and a defense decimated by injuries possibly rally to get back into contention for a playoff spot?

I've watched it all happen and I'm still not sure that I completely understand exactly how the Cowboys keep winning games against good teams.  But they are getting it done.  It is taking better play from the offensive line, the return of DeMarco Murry, big plays by the best defensive players, and timely plays in crunch time on both sides of the ball.  And we can't forget to throw in the big plays on special teams from Dwayne Harris and Dan Bailey.

I am having more fun with this season than any year since probably 2007.  And the reason has to do with my expectations for the team.  Even with the Cowboys winning five of their last six I have no delusional thoughts of the Cowboys running the table to win the NFC East.  I know it can happen, but I still see their chances of winning each of the next two games as 50-50 at best.  But there does seem to be something special building with this team. 

It has been refreshing to go into each and every game with very low expectations and see the team play above themselves even if it is only for a short stretch of the season.  It is funny how quickly the national media has jumped on the Tony Romo bandwagon when all he is doing is playing the same football in December that he has played for the last three or four seasons.  The difference this year has been his supporting cast.  But don't tell those talking heads that.  They all want you to believe that Romo is somehow playing differently this year than in years past.

Jason Garrett does seem to be more decisive over the last few weeks as well.  He did have an interesting thought at the end of the game last week when he had Dan Bailey line up for a 61 yard attempt before rethinking the move after a Steeler time out.  I'm not sure the Cowboys would have actually kicked the field goal without the time out, but it would not have been a fundamentally sound call.  But with the way things are going right now Bailey probably would have nailed the kick anyway.

DeMarco Murray is the biggest difference in the offense over the last few weeks.  It is amazing how much more efficient the offense has become in the red zone with the ability to run the ball even in short yardage situations.  It is sad to think what could have been last year had Murray not been injured but we can't go back in time so I have to let that go.  But it has been nice to see DeMarco Murray not only on the field over the last few weeks but seemingly getting more healthy as the weeks go by.  The Cowboys only have a real shot at winning out this season if Murray stays healthy.

I'm not going to make any more predictions this season.  My plan is to sit back and enjoy the rest of the games.  I'll still be posting on my blog, but I'm really going to just appreciate watching a team that continues to surprise me.  I hope it doesn't end.  This season is reminding me how fun it can be to be a loyal fan.  Don't forget to remind your family and friends who jumped off the bandwagon as they begin to jump back on that they gave up on their team.

Friday, December 14, 2012

Still Alive

I’m not exactly sure how the Cowboys have managed to keep themselves afloat, but they are still alive with three weeks to go in the season.  If you looked at the injuries on the defensive side of the ball it would be easy to think that the Cowboys have no shot to make the postseason.  But the Cowboys have managed to win four out of their last five games even with the injuries and the horrific car accident taking place.

I have to admit that my patience with Jason Garrett was really growing thin.  But I think the win last week was the biggest win of his coaching career.  The Cowboys went into the Bengal game with the season on the line, the defense devastated by injuries, and the news that one of their teammates was dead and another was in jail.  Jason Garrett had them ready to play despite all of the cards being stacked against them.

I’m not giving Garrett a pass on his play calling.  He has got to get the offense going earlier in the game.  I really wish he would take the handcuffs off of Romo earlier in the game.  The Cowboys have been finding ways to pull out victories in the 4th quarter with big plays by the offense.  But you can’t expect miraculous comebacks every week.  Just look back at the Redskins game and you see what I mean.  

So the Steelers come to town in a situation very similar to the Cowboys.  They are fighting for their season.  But the Steelers aren’t playing good football coming into the game.  In fact, they are really struggling recently partly due to the injury to Ben Roethlisberger and party due to injuries.  Whatever the reasons, you know the Steelers are going to do whatever they can to pull this game out.

The Cowboys are piecing together a new starting lineup on defense every week.  And this week will be no different.  Jay Ratliff is out again and probably for the rest of the season.  Josh Brent it out.  Morris Claiborne should play but is questionable with a concussion.  Demarcus Ware has a bad shoulder, a bad elbow and a bad neck but he should play.  Somehow the defense has got to find a way to contain the big play receivers of the Steelers.  It is going to have to big pressure from Hatcher, Spencer and Ware that keeps the passing game in check.

The offense has got to get off to a better start.  I’m not sure what the recipe is for a better start but something has got to change.  I would love to see a more up tempo feel out of the gates for the offense.  It doesn’t have to be a no huddle offense but the pace should be quick.  That seems to get Romo and the rest of the offense into a rhythm.  

Dez Bryant is playing with a broken finger but I really don’t think it will have any impact on his play.  I know he’ll have some pain to deal with but he has such big, strong hands that I think he’ll catch the ball without any issues.  My bigger concern is Miles Austin.  He needs to come up big in this game.  Defenses are rolling coverages to Dez’s side of the field to try to stop him so Miles needs to start making plays against one-on-one coverage to make them pay.  With the poor quality of the Steeler secondary there is no reason that Miles shouldn’t be getting open.  Now, Romo actually having a little time to survey the field and find the open receiver is another problem entirely.

I think this game is going to be a tough battle.  Neither team really has an offense that lights up the scoreboard.  And both teams are dealing with injuries on both sides of the ball.  It doesn’t make sense when you look at the makeup of the defense, but I feel like the Cowboys are going to find a way to get it done again.  Jason Garrett is starting to understand how to coach his team in late game situations and it is making a difference.  I think the Cowboys win this one 22-16 and keep the playoff hope alive for at least another week.

Monday, December 3, 2012

Romo Must Play at MVP Level

The Cowboys don't have much of a shot to make the playoffs.  They will likely have to win their remaining four games to even have a chance.  The defense is a complete mess after suffering injury after injury throughout the season.  So it would seem that the only real chance that the Cowboys have to keep winning is to simply outscore their opponents.  That is going to be a tall order especially when you consider the poor play of the offensive line.

I know the win against the Eagles was a bit of a mirage because the Eagles have essentially shut it down for the season.  But it gave us a glimpse of what the games are going to be like from this point on.  The defense is going to give up a lot of yards and a lot of points.  The offense is going to have to put up big numbers on the scoreboard in every game for the rest of the season.

So it boils down to this.  Tony Romo has to be great for the Cowboys to have a chance.  Not good, great.  Getting DeMarco Murray back into the fold is going to help.  But the offense is only going to go as far as Romo takes them.  Just think of what Aaron Rodgers did two years ago.  He caught fire and carried his team into the playoffs.  Romo has to do the same thing.

Now don't get me wrong here.  I'm not saying that Romo is going to carry to Cowboys into the playoffs.  That scenario is extremely unlikely.  All I am saying is that the only path to the playoffs has Romo leading the charge. 

The defense is bad.  So what I would like to see out of them is more risk taking.  They need to play for turnovers.  They are already giving up big plays and big yardage anyway.  The only way the defense can offset that is to force more turnovers.  Morris Claiborne and Brandon Carr need to get more freedom to jump routes.  Playing soft and keeping everything underneath isn't working.  Everyone on defense needs to go for broke within the framework of the defense.

It seems like a pretty simple adjustment for Rob Ryan and Jason Garrett to make to the defense.  Unfortunately we don't see the coaches make many adjustments during the game or even week to week with this team.  So maybe my vision for the defense is a pipe dream but it sure seems like the only answer to me with so many key players missing.

Tony Romo is getting hot.  Dez Bryant is in full beast mode.  Jason Witten is finally making plays down the field.  The offense needs to run on all cylinders from this point on.  It is the only hope the Cowboys have.

Wednesday, November 21, 2012

Defending RG3

The Cowboys face a pivotal moment in their season tomorrow.  If they can find a way to beat the Redskins there will be a very good chance that the Cowboys will tied for first place after the Giants play the Packers on Sunday.  The big obstacle in front of them is RG3.

This is the first game in what will likely be a decade or more of games against the exciting rookie quarterback.  He has shown impressive athleticism and smarts early in his career.  But, if you watch the Redskins closely, you will see that there is a reason why his passing stats are so stellar.

The Redskins throw a dazzling array of screen and play action passes.  I don't mean to take anything away from what RG3 has done but his stats as a passer are very much related to the offensive scheme and his running ability more than anything else.  The opposing defenses have to spend so much time worrying about containing him as a runner that it leaves the receivers in very favorable matchups.

So the Cowboys have to get the Redskins out of their game plan.  There are a few ways to do that.  The most obvious way to do it is to get out to a big lead.  Unfortunately that isn't how the Cowboys typically operate.  But Jason Garrett needs to go with an aggressive game plan to put points on the board early and often.  The Redskins have one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  But the Cowboys counter that with one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. 

The Browns game should have taught Garrett that the quick passing game out of the shotgun is the best chance the Cowboys have to move the ball consistently going forward.  The run blocking is terrible and the pass blocking is worse.  But, if Romo can get the ball out quickly, Dez Bryant, Miles Austin, and Jason Witten should be able to pile up the yards for the offense.

On defense the Cowboys will need to stop the running game early on.  If the Cowboys can force the Redskins to be a one dimensional offense then they can focus all of their attention on stopping RG3.  He is going to make some big plays.  You should expect to see that.  But the Cowboys need to force him into some bad plays too. 

The key is to make his bad plays outnumber his big plays.  That is easier said than done, but Demarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer need to make him uncomfortable.  Most of the Redskins big passing plays have come when RG3 is in the pocket.  Keep him in the pocket and then bring pressure up the middle in his face.  That will be the challenge.  Jason Hatcher, Marcus Spears and Jay Ratliff need to bring relentless pressure up the middle.

This is going to be a tough game for the Cowboys.  The offensive line is a mess with injuries and poor play.  The defense is missing starters all over the place.  But the Redskins have similar problems with their team.  I want the Cowboys to get out to an early, big lead but it is unlikely.  So I'm going to pick the game to be close.  I'm taking the Cowboys 23-20.