A Few Early Offseason Thoughts

It is really hard to watch the playoffs because the Cowboys are missing yet again. But I have definitely realized that the Cowboys had no business being a playoff team this season. The NFC playoff teams were all much more deserving than the Cowboys to be in the tournament. And I think the Cowboys would have lost to every team on the NFC side.

Dave Campo is out as the defensive backs coach. I have mixed emotions on this move. When Campo was the head coach in the early 2000's I attended a training camp practice in Wichita Falls. He actually took about 5 minutes of his time after practice to talk with my friend and me about the team. I'll never forget that. He is a great guy. But, as a coach, it was time for him to go. I know a big part of the problem is the players but the cornerback play has been sub-par for years. There are a lot of teams in the league doing more with less talent at cornerback.

I will be thrilled if Tony Sparano comes back to the Cowboys. He would help shore up the offensive line and, more importantly, he could be a great advisor to Jason Garrett. Garrett's best season as a play caller was in 2007 when Sparano was around helping out with the offense. I hope he is willing to come back to team up with Jason Garrett again.

Rob Ryan should be back as the defensive coordinator. I know that he should shoulder a big part of the blame for the embarrassing performances by the defense to close out the season. But, with a full offseason to teach his scheme, I think we could see big improvements in the defense. I expect a much greater understanding of the defense by all of the players after an offseason to learn the schemes and pre-play adjustments.

The Cowboys need to find another young quarterback to groom. Tony Romo will turn 32 in April. He probably has 2-4 good/great seasons left in him. After that the cupboard is pretty bare for the Cowboys. Stephen McGee has flashed potential a few times but I have no confidence that he will be able to develop into a starting caliber player. I'd like to see the Cowboys bring in another young quarterback to develop. They might even need to bring in another older veteran to serve as the backup in the short term and draft another young quarterback to develop for the future.

There has been a lot of talk that the offensive line needs a complete overhaul. I'm not sure that I agree with that. The Cowboys are set at tackle with Doug Free and Tyron Smith possibly switching sides next season. And Phil Costa and Kevin Kowalski did a pretty good job at center. Where the Cowboys are hurting is at guard. Kyle Kosier is aging and becoming injury prone. His play isn't good enough to cross your fingers and hope he stays healthy. Bill Nagy and David Arkin should battle for one starting spot next year. But I'd like to see guard addressed in either the draft or free agency.

The biggest needs for the Cowboys seem to be on defense. There is a major need for impact players. Outside of Sean Lee and Demarcus Ware there just aren't any players that make game changing plays on a regular basis.

Jerry Jones is promising changes this offseason. I hope he isn't just blowing smoke to quiet the angry fan base. There are gaping holes on the roster that need to be addressed. And there are aging veterans that need to be cut loose.

The Better Team Won

I'm just going to write a few thoughts after the season ending loss to the Giants.

The Giants were the better team. I really thought the Cowboys were better than this but I guess I was just seeing things with my heart and not my head.

The Cowboys secondary is terrible. It is time for Newman to retire or get cut. Why don't the Cowboys DB's ever make a play on the ball? Eli Manning basically closed his eyes and threw the ball up to Victor Cruz with the Cowboys down 7 trying to get the Giants off the field on 3rd down. Scandrick had position but just got outplayed by Cruz once the ball was in the air.

The defense and the offensive line lost the game. A 21-0 deficit was just too much to overcome without a few boneheaded mistakes by the Giants. Maybe with a full offseason the defense will be able to grasp the complex Rob Ryan defense. There was way too much confusion pre-snap in the defense.

I knew the offensive line would be an issue heading into the season when the Cowboys cut 3 former pro bowlers. Unfortunately their youth and inexperience really showed in the most important game of the season.

Tony Romo is a great quarterback. He was the only reason the game wasn't a complete disaster in the 2nd half. He was sacked 6 times and I think there could have been at least 6 more if he wasn't making free rushers miss.

Why did it take until halftime for the Cowboys to adjust on offense and defense? By halftime it was really too late to comeback without playing nearly flawlessly in the 2nd half.

I came to the conclusion after the first embarrassing loss to the Eagles that the Cowboys were a mediocre team. So 8-8 is a fitting finish to the season.

There is a lot of work to do in the offseason. The secondary needs a serious makeover. And the offensive line needs major improvement.

One Game to Decide the Season

This is it. The game we have been waiting all season to see. Win and the season will likely be viewed a success. Lose and the sky will be falling. One game to decide it all.

There is no way to predict how this game will play out. The easy thing to do is predict another shoot out just like the first game between the Cowboys and the Giants this season. But how often do two games in a row play out the same way? It just doesn't tend to happen that way.

The Cowboys defense just isn't very good. I have tried to justify their performances throughout the season in different ways. But the reality is that they just don't perform at a high level for long stretches of time. Sometimes they are dominant for a quarter or even a half. But at some point they always seem to go soft. And they never seem to be at their best in the critical moments of the game. So the defense is what concerns me the most heading into the Sunday night showdown.

Demarcus Ware has put up 18 sacks this season. But how many of those sacks have come in game defining moments? Sean Lee has had some big plays. But how many of those big plays have come when the team needed them the most? There just doesn't seem to be a player on the defense that steps up when the moment gets big. I don't think we can expect that to change Sunday night.

So that means that the offense and special teams have to be on top of their game. Tony Romo should be good to go coming back from his hand injury. The Cowboys can't afford many turnovers from their offense in the game. And Romo needs to lead his offense to touchdowns, not field goals. The funny thing heading into the game is that Romo is one of the last guys on the team I am worried about. He has been playing lights out for quite a while and he has stepped up in big games before despite what his critics would have you believe.

Felix Jones and Sammy Morris will be very important as well. The Cowboys don't need to get into another game where the last offense with the ball wins. They need to control the clock and the game with the running game. Felix Jones should be healthy for this one. Derrick Dockery starting for Montrae Holland is a bit of a concern but I don't think there will be a noticeable difference in the running game with Holland out.

Dwayne Harris showed a little spark in the return game last week. Maybe he can finally provide some juice to the kick return game. Dez Bryant will be used on punt returns a lot more this week since there is nothing to save him for at this point. I give the Cowboys a big edge in special teams if Dez Bryant is going to get a lot of work returning punts. Of course that means that the defense actually has to force a few punts for Dez to get his opportunities.

I really could see this game going either way. The Giants could get out to a quick start and then pound the Cowboys into submission with Brandon Jacobs. Or the Cowboys could get out to a quick start and control the clock with the running game. Or it could be another shootout. I could even see Eli Manning and Tony Romo both come out a little shaky and the scoring stay down. Both teams have been so inconsistent this season it has been maddening to the fans of both the Giants and the Cowboys.

I'm going to pick with my heart. My head tells me to flip a coin. My heart tells me that Romo is playing the best football of his career and it is time for him to turn the corner and become respected as a big time quarterback. That means he needs a win Sunday night. I think the Cowboys will get the win. I'm picking the Cowboys to win the game 27-20. Of course, it will come down to the last minute. You can bank on that based on the way the season has gone.

It All Comes Down to This

There were about 15 minutes on Saturday when I thought the season was over. Romo was in the locker room getting his right hand x-rayed and it didn't look good. Watching Stephen McGee operate ineffectively made it painfully obvious that the Cowboys can't beat anyone without Romo.

So when the news came that Romo is ok I was all for sitting him out and giving up the Philadelphia game. There was next to nothing to be gained. Felix Jones was pulled around the same time as the news came that the Giants had defeated the Jets eliminating any chance that the NFC East crown could be sewn up early.

We could sit here and try to analyze the outcome of the Eagle game but I don't know what can be gained. Not having a legitimate offense puts extra pressure on the defense. But the defense only gave up 20 points. On the other side of the coin, the Eagles had a 20 point lead and no real reason to try to extend that lead. It was essentially a preseason game in week 16...weird.

In a season that so many of the Cowboys games have come down to the last few minutes it seems fitting that their playoff life will be determined at the last possible moment. It is entirely possible that with 2 minutes to go on Sunday night we still won't know if the Cowboys will make the playoffs. And, if the game a few weeks ago against the Giants is any indication, it might be a very stressful evening for fans of both teams.

The best news out of the game against the Eagles was that Tony Romo is ok. He should be good to go on Sunday night. And that gives the Cowboys a fighting chance in the winner take all matchup.

Cowboys Need a Better Start This Time Around

When the Cowboys and Eagles played earlier this season the game got out of hand very quickly. And that basically took the offense out of their game plan. The defense was scrambling to adjust to the onslaught of the Eagle offense. And by the time things settled down the game was long gone.

Their were obviously some tactical errors in Rob Ryan's game plan defensively. He left the middle of the field exposed and the Eagles attacked the middle with ease. LeSean McCoy ran wild all game long. And what is scary is that I'm not sure that the defense is any better now than they were in that game. But I am sure that the game plan will be different this time around. Ryan was aggressive early in the game with blitzes but the Eagles called the perfect plays every time to burn the blitz and that made Ryan go into a conservative shell defense which the Eagles then shredded to pieces. I expect a better mix from Ryan this time around.

The most important thing to help the Cowboys this time around will be a good start by the offense. Last time they got out of the gate slowly and Martellus Bennett tipped up a well thrown ball by Romo right to the defense for an interception. And by the time the game settled down the Cowboys were so far behind that running the ball was out of the question. The Cowboys will need long, methodical drives in this game to control the ball and the time of possession.

The defense isn't good enough to have to defend Michael Vick, DeSean Jackson, and LeSean McCoy over and over and over. The offense can limit the opportunities that any of those players get by keeping the ball away from them. That means that the Cowboys need to be able to run the ball and convert third downs.

I really hope that the Cowboys are being honest when they say that they are just being conservative with Felix Jones and his tight hamstring. Sammy Morris looked good last week but I wouldn't want the Cowboys to depend on him for 20+ carries. Felix Jones needs to be the primary ball carrier because he is more explosive and he is in far better football shape than Morris.

This game can go one of two ways. It is either going to seem like a playoff game if the Giants lose or it will almost be meaningless if the Giants win (unless Atlanta loses out but the have Tampa Bay in their final game). The Cowboys can clinch the NFC East with a Giants loss and a win on Saturday. It would be awfully nice for some of the banged up players to get some rest in the final game of the week with a playoff game clinched. But I have a sneaking suspicion that the Giants will find a way to beat the Jets and make the season finale essentially a playoff game.

I have no idea what to expect going into this game. I am sure that the Eagles aren't going to steamroll the Cowboys like they did the last time. But I don't see the Cowboys blowing out the Eagles either. I think the game will come down to the fourth quarter as usual. The good news there is the the Eagles have been a horrible 4th quarter team this year in close games. I'm not saying the Cowboys have been great in the 4th quarter but they have certainly been better than the Eagles.

It is hard to predict a score for this game without knowing what happens in the Giants-Jets game earlier on Saturday. But I am going to assume that the Cowboys will be playing everyone for the entire game. I think it will be tight but I think the Cowboys will find a way to get it done. I'm picking the Cowboys to win 27-25. Whether that win actually means anything will be the bigger story.

Step One Complete

The Cowboys completely dominated on Saturday night. Looking at the final score, 31-15, it doesn't look like complete domination. But if you watched the game it was easy to see how much better the Cowboys were than the Bucs.

If the Cowboys hadn't taken the pedal off the gas in the second half they could have easily put another 10-14 points on the board. But after an early strip sack returned for a touchdown by the Bucs in the second half Jason Garrett went a little conservative. But it was the smart move. Winning by 30 points doesn't get you anything extra.

And some might point to the way the Bucs moved the ball in the second half as a sign that the defense went soft again. First of all, Demarcus Ware and Jay Ratliff sat out the entire second half. Take away two pro bowl caliber players from any defense and there will be a drop off. Secondly, most of Josh Freeman's completions were underneath the coverage because the Cowboys were forcing the Bucs to use a lot of clock to get the ball down the field.

What was even more impressive than the play of the defense was the performance of Tony Romo. He is playing the best football of his career. It is too bad that the Cowboys lost in the final minutes to the Cardinals and the Giants because there would be more recognition nationally for just how great Romo is playing. Romo played so good in the first half with three passing TD's and one rushing TD that he didn't need to do much in the second half but manage the game. The blowout score prevented him from having a career game.

The trio of wide receivers for the Cowboys are making the offense very dangerous. Miles Austin, Dez Bryant, and Laurent Robinson all have the ability to make big plays and they are forcing the defenses to stop over-committing to the run. And Jason Witten is finally starting to find a little room to work again.

Felix Jones played pretty well for the second straight game. He was tough between the tackles and was explosive when big play opportunities presented themselves. I just hope he can stay healthy because the more touches he gets the more concerned I become. If he can keep running like he is then the running game will be ok. Especially if Sammy Morris runs with power for the rest of the year like he did against Tampa Bay. Morris might be a good short yardage back for the offense with the power he showed in this game.

It isn't all roses for the Cowboys coming out of this game. It is still worries me that the pass rush seems to disappear whenever Demarcus Ware is out of the game. Ware's health seems like a big concern heading down the stretch. Anthony Spencer and the rest of the pass rushers need to make a bigger impact over the next two games. Sean Lee missed several tackles in the game and it is obvious that he needs to get full use of his left hand to be at his best.

The loss the Giants suffered to the Redskins this week was helpful but doesn't change much if they can beat the Jets next week. But there is at least a chance now that the Cowboys could clinch the NFC East next week with a win over the Eagles and a Giants loss to the Jets. It just feels like that would be too easy. My gut tells me that this season will come down to the final game of the year. The luxury the Cowboys have now is that they can lose to the Eagles and still come away with the NFC East title with a win in the final game.

The great thing about the schedule next week is that the Giants and Jets play in the early slate of games. The Cowboys have a 3:15 CDT kickoff so they will have a good idea at kickoff if the are playing for the NFC East title. I'd love to see the Cowboys clinch next week but things just don't usually play out so nicely for the Cowboys. Either way, bring on the Eagles!

It Is Do or Die Time

I think most of us have come to the realization that the Dallas Cowboys are most likely not destined for the Super Bowl this season. That doesn't make this season a failure. But it would be hard to imagine not viewing the season as a failure after the Cowboys held a two game lead in the division just two weeks ago and seemed to be a lock for the NFC East title.

But a funny thing happened along the way. The team performed with a two game lead just like they have in the 4th quarter of too many games this season. They found a way to screw it up. And it happened so quickly it left everyone wondering what happened. But, just like in the games they lost, there is still time to salvage a playoff spot.

If that is going to happen then the game against Tampa Bay has got to be a win. The Cowboys need to not only win but they need to make a statement. I know it is hard to make a statement in a game that should be an easy win. But a great performance could start the ball rolling in the right direction again for this team.

The Bucs are a mess. They are in an awful downward spiral very similar to what happened with the Cowboys right before Wade Phillips was fired last year. Sure, they will come out fired up for a big game against the Cowboys. But they are also only a few early scores away from quitting completely.

And so a quick start is what they Cowboys will need this week. They can't mess around with taking this game down to the last minute. The Cowboys have no more margin for error on the season. They need three straight wins and this should be the easiest of the three.

I'm not going to spend too much time breaking down who needs to do what in this game. We all know it at this point. Felix Jones needs to play this week like he did last week minus the fumble. Tony Romo needs to continue to play excellent football. And, for the love of God, the defense needs to pull their heads out of their rear ends.

Rob Ryan has promised that many of the communication issues that have plagued the defense have been fixed. I find that hard to believe. If it were so easy why wasn't it fixed months ago? I don't want to hear any excuses from anyone on the defense. They all need to play better. Line up and beat the man across from you. Scheme plays a part in the outcome but there haven't been many guys winning their one-on-one matchups lately.

I think the Cowboys will come out very motivated this week. I think the team will have a chip on their shoulder after the way things went down last week. I expect to see a blowout victory that is clinched in the third quarter. I like nothing more than to see a healthy dose of Sammy Morris and Stephen McGee in the 4th quarter. I'm picking the Cowboys to win 35-20 and it won't be as close as that score sounds. And Jason Witten is dues for a big game. Don't be surprised if he has 10+ catches in this one.