Don't Get Worked Up Over Dez Bryant

ESPN is trying to create some news by reporting that Dez Bryant will possibly visit the Cowboys on April 1. The April Fool's Day visit seems pretty ironic when you consider the odds of the Cowboys actually picking Bryant in the draft. There are so many factors stacked against the move that it would be highly unlikely at best that the Cowboys would have the chance to draft Bryant.

Most mock drafts are putting Dez Bryant in the top 15 picks. The Cowboys would really struggle to find the ammunition to move up into the top 15. They would probably have to give up multiple picks to even have a shot and it could even possibly take next year's first round pick to move up that high. Of course they could throw in a player like Martellus Bennett into the deal, but player trade value is usually at its lowest during the draft. And I highly doubt anyone wants to take on the deal of Roy Williams considering the astronomical amount of money he is due for the 2010 season (nearly $13 million).

And look at the Cowboys current depth chart at wide receiver. Miles Austin, Roy Williams, Patrick Crayton, Sam Hurd, and Kevin Ogletree. That is a pretty strong set of receivers. You can argue that they need more help but I haven't given up on the natural talents and size of Roy Williams just yet. And Kevin Ogletree is going to make a strong push for a move up in the depth chart next season. It is really hard for me to see the need for another high maintenance, overpriced wide receiver. A speed receiver to provide a deep threat makes sense, but not a guy who would demand the ball like a high first round pick would.

You can let your imagination run wild if you want and try to envision the Cowboys with Miles Austin, Roy Williams, and Dez Bryant on the field. But that just isn't going to materialize barring a minor miracle. You can have too much of a good thing sometimes and I think wide receiver is a good example of that. There are only so many passes to go around in the offense and with your top two receivers, Miles Austin and Jason Witten, in the prime of their careers it is difficult to see how another top flight receiver will be able to flourish in the offense.

I think the Cowboys are covering their bases in the event that something strange happens on draft day and Dez Bryant falls to them at the end of the first round. And you can't fault them for that. But I won't be fooled into thinking that a standard pre-draft visit means anything. The thought of a guy as talented as Dez Bryant in a Cowboys uniform is pretty exciting but I just don't see how it would make any sense to sell the farm to get him. Especially when there are some real needs at other positions that need to be addressed.

Can You Justify Keeping Ken Hamlin?

It is amazing to me how a guy like Ken Hamlin can fly under the radar during the regular season. Sure, people want to see him make more plays, but he doesn't get beaten for big plays either. And so he flies under the radar because you don't even know he's on the field unless you are paying close attention to the game. Heck, half the time he is lined up so far off the ball that he doesn't even make it into the TV view of the game. The offseason gives us a chance to really evaluate the play of guys like Hamlin who you don't always notice during the season.

The stats don't lie for Ken Hamlin. 2007 was an aberration. He scored a big contract on the back of his 5 interceptions and 15 passes defensed that season. He looked like young player who fit perfectly into the Wade Phillips 3-4 scheme and would be a playmaker in the defense for years to come.

But the last two years tell a different story. In 2008 Hamlin had just 1 interception and 2 passes defensed in 16 games. And last year he managed a total of exactly 0 interceptions and again just 2 passes defensed in 12 games. Those are some pitiful numbers.

Ok, so you can argue that the stats don't tell the entire story. Jerry Jones likes to refer to Ken Hamlin as the quarterback of the defense. He is the guy who makes sure that everyone lines up correctly before the snap and he helps communicate defensive assignments before the play. I could be sold on the argument if you could prove to me that another player couldn't do the same job while also making a play once in a while.

So to me the question to keep Hamlin boils down to what you have to replace him. As of right now it looks like Alan Ball. Mike Hamlin got injured last year so he didn't actually get to develop much last season. He clearly isn't ready to step into a starting role. But Alan Ball might be. Ball looked decent in his time as a starter in place of Hamlin last year. He seemed to do a better job the more he was on the field. But he didn't do anything to knock your socks off either.

I think Ken Hamlin's job with the Cowboys is dependent on two things. First, can the Cowboys find a suitable replacement in free agency without breaking the bank. And secondly, if they don't find a free agent, can they find a dynamic player in the early rounds of the draft who could step in to start either right away or early in the season. They could use Ball to hold down the fort while allowing a rookie to transition to the NFL level without throwing too much at him all at once.

Ken Hamlin is never going to be a guy who makes plays all over the field. He has proven that. So the only thing that will save him is if the Cowboys cannot find someone better this offseason. There are no salary cap ramifications for cutting him, so that won't save him like it may have last season.

The Cowboys haven't been big players in free agency up to this point. Oshiomogho Atogwe is still out there. The Cowboys might be waiting to let the market calm down so they don't have to overpay for an above average but not great player. He hasn't been exactly stellar either over the last two year. But he has 7 interceptions over the last two years as opposed to 1 for Hamlin. And he has been a more active tackler but that could be a result of the terrible players around him. If Atogwe is the best free agent available I can see why the Cowboys aren't rushing to break the bank for him. But he does merit a closer inspection by the Cowboys.

And hey, if things don't work out with Atogwe, then at least we can still hope for a player in the draft. There are several safeties coming out this year that look pretty good. Eric Berry from Tennessee will be gone long before the Cowboys pick. Earl Thomas from Texas might slip far enough for the Cowboys to trade up to get him. And Taylor Mays from USC is predicted to be drafted in the Cowboys' range of round 1. So there is definitely hope this year in the draft. But you never really know about college players until they get on the field with NFL players.

The worst case scenario would be that Ken Hamlin comes back again as the starter next season. The defense will still be missing a playmaker at free safety but at least we'll know the defense won't be giving up big plays. I'm keeping my fingers crossed for a better option to be given the job, but the defense wouldn't collapse if Hamlin is back next season.

Marty B Needs Less Talk, More Action

I have been pondering the future of Martellus Bennett with the Dallas Cowboys since early in the 2009 season. The Cowboys had spent a great deal of time developing schemes in the offensive game plan to get him involved. But it was obvious in game after game that Martellus wasn't getting the job done. Sure, he did a good job run blocking. But he has to be told where to line up in what seems like every other play. He runs the wrong route on passes or makes the wrong pattern adjustment during the play. And, worst of all, he lost the trust of his quarterback.

When John Phillips started to take the place of Marty B in the passing game I thought it might finally light a fire under him. But listening to his comments to Steve Dennis of CBS in Dallas, it seems as though Martellus believes he is already working hard. That is a scary thought. I have witnessed the work habits of Martellus first hand at training camp. He is a guy who is more interested in playing around and working the crowd then actually focusing on the practice. And during the games you can watch him goof around on the sidelines while other offensive players are discussing adjustments or correcting mistakes.

He is the classic case of a guy who never had to work hard to make it big in sports. He has all the talent in the world but he lacks the work ethic required at the professional level to be successful. I really wonder if he has the mental capacity to succeed at the NFL level based on his enourmous number of mental mistakes throughout the course of each game. I really wonder how it is possible that he has to be told on nearly every other play where to line up. Is he too dumb to remember where to line up or does he lack the focus needed to be successful?

I remember when people were getting on Jason Witten's case during Hard Knocks in 2008 when he was caught telling Martellus that he wasn't going to help him line up every play. At that time it seemed like a rookie struggling to adapt but now it is becoming apparent that this is what Martellus is. Jason Witten seemed to sense the problem early on. Now we can see that Jason was right all along.

Jerry Jones has weighed in on the topic recently. He agreed that Martellus needs to put in more work to succeed at this level. You would think that getting called out in the media by your owner would light a fire under your butt. Not with Martellus. He seems to believe he is already working hard and the coaches need to find better ways to use him. That scares me.

Remember how John Garrett had to constantly ride Martellus during hard knocks in 2008? You shouldn't have to treat a professional football player that way, but I think that is the only way Martellus will listen. I think Martellus lacks the desire needed to reach his potential.

I have reached the point that I am ready for the Cowboys to attempt to trade Martellus for whatever they can get for him. I'm sure some team would be enamoured by his enormous talent and offer a draft pick for him. I would be happy to trade him for a second or third round pick. If the Cowboys can get that for him I think it would be a steal. John Phillips has proven he is on the rise and Martellus' stock is falling fast.

If Martellus stays, he is right, this is the big year for him. We saw promise in his rookie year. But then he actually regressed in year two. I didn't see his problems this year as the classic sophomore slump. His problems seemed to be a lack of mental preparation for the games. We need a new focus from Martellus this season. Save the comments for me about his age. He has been working as a professional football player for two years now. How long should we have to wait for a guy to get it together? We are all hoping for a Super Bowl run this season. That isn't going to happen with guys lining up in the wrong place every other place. And Martellus will have to work hard to earn back the trust of his quarterback. I don't think Tony Romo has trusted Martellus since he ran his stupid spin route instead of the called fade route in the Carolina game.

If it were up to me, Martellus would be shipped out of Dallas ASAP. You don't make comments to the media about changing the offense to fit you when you aren't even working hard to improve. Martellus needs to improve his game and I don't think he sees that. Maybe a ticket out of town will make him finally realize he has to work to take advantage of his natural physical talents.

Reactions to RFA Tenders

The Cowboys finally made their offers officially today. They chose to give tender offers to every player on their list of restricted free agents except for Sean Suisham. I'm a little surprised by a few of the offers but I like the strategy they are trying to use in most cases. By making the tender offers the Cowboys are essentially giving themselves a fall back plan in the event that they can't find a better option in free agency or the draft.

The Miles Austin offer was no surprise. The Cowboys are guaranteed the right to match any offer Miles receives and would receive a first and third round pick if any team was able to sign him to a deal the Cowboys wouldn't match. He'll be back next season barring the use of the "poison pill".

I'm a little surprised that the Cowboys didn't do more to protect Marcus Spears. He received a second round tender offer. Spears isn't a dynamic playmaker but he is a great run defender. I'm thinking the Cowboys are letting the market set the terms for a long term deal. I just hope they didn't set the bar too low for Spears.

Sam Hurd also received a second round tender offer. He falls into the category of a guy they are keeping around as insurance. I'm sure they'll explore options in the draft and free agency, but Hurd would be a great fall back option if nothing else pans out.

Gerald Sensabaugh also only received a second round tender offer. I know Gerald was talking about a long term deal after the season ended but I think the Cowboys want to be sure they don't overpay for his services. The tender offer allows the Cowboys to see what the rest of the league thinks of him which will essentially dictate the terms of any multi-year offer the Cowboys might make him.

Jason Hatcher and Stephen Bowen also got second round tenders. I think both of these guys would be happy to make the $1.759 million the offer guarantees them for next season. The odds of losing a backup defensive player at the expense of a second round pick is very slim. It looks like they'll both be back next season.

For some reason the Cowboys continue to hold on to Cory Procter. I don't see it with this guy but I guess the Cowboys just love the fact that he plays guard and center. In my opinion he is a waste at guard but we haven't seen much out of him at center. I guess the coaches know more than the rest of us so there must be something to Procter we aren't seeing in the games.

Overall, I think the Cowboys made the smart play here. They gave themselves protection on 12 of the 13 RFA's. And they didn't mess around with a lower tender offer for Miles Austin. I'm sure Miles will be signed to a long term deal this summer or early in the 2010 season. The Cowboys are going to let the market dictate the terms of any long term deals with the rest of the RFA's. And I'm sure some of these guys will be traded or released either before, during or after the draft is completed.

The Cowboys still have holes to fill on the roster. But it looks like they did a good job preventing new ones from forming. Now they can play the field and determine if there are better options without feeling the desperation most teams have going into the offseason.

What to Do with the RFA's

The Cowboys have yet to make an offer on any of their 13 restricted free agents. There are some players who will be back without any doubt but there are also some players who might have run out of time to prove they belong on the team. Here is what I am hoping to see for all of the restricted free agents.

Miles Austin - Do I even need to say it? Keep him.

Stephen Bowen - Keep him. The Cowboys need him for depth on the defensive line. He has developed into a solid player over the last few years.

Jason Hatcher - Keep him as long as he is ok with his backup role. There have been times he has voiced some displeasure during games about his lack of playing time. If he still believes he is starting material then let him test the market.

Sean Suisham - Goodbye.

Sam Hurd - This is a tough one. Hurd is a good special teams player and has shown flashes of being a decent receiver when given the chance. Unfortunately he has been jumped in the depth chart by Kevin Ogletree so he is sitting 5th on the list of receivers. I'd like to see the Cowboys keep him because I think he can take over the 3rd or 4th spot if anyone gets injured. But if the Cowboys have any plans to draft a receiver he'll probably be the guy to go.

Cletis Gordan - He was a practice squad player and probably won't be back next season if the Cowboys draft any DB's they decide to keep.

Pat McQuistan - I think his time is up. He had a golden opportunity this season to get on the field but he couldn't beat out Doug Free for playing time. He probably needs to go since Robert Brewster will be back from injury to provide depth at tackle.

Duke Preston - I don't see the Cowboys making a move to keep a guy who couldn't make the active roster last season. He is a big guy but he is 27 and hasn't done anything to show he is worth keeping.

Cory Procter - I was done with this guy after his disastrous 2008 season. But the Cowboys love his ability to play guard and center. The problem is that he is terrible when he gets on the field. I'd like to see him go but I'll bet the Cowboys keep him again.

Gerald Sensabaugh - This is an easy one for me. Sensabaugh proved he is a good player last season. The Cowboys need to get him under contract and consider their options at free safety. I'm not sure Ken Hamlin will be back but I'll be surprised if they don't hold on to Sensabaugh.

Junior Siavii - The Cowboys may need to bring Siavii back to protect themselves in case they can't find a good backup nose tackle in the draft. Siavii is a decent fill in for Jay Ratliff. I think Siavii comes back but may end up traded or cut depending on how the draft goes for the Cowboys.

Marcus Spears - This is another easy one. Spears is great against the run which is his primary role in Wade Phillips' 3-4 scheme. I'll be shocked if the Cowboys don't get Spears under contract for next season.

Pat Watkins - I think Pat is done with the Cowboys. He has been a solid special teams contributor, but Mike Hamlin is waiting in the wings to provide youth and potential at safety. We know what Watkins is at this point in his career and keeping him would limit the progress of Mike Hamlin. I think Watkins will be with a new team next year.

Overall there are a few key players that have to come back. Miles Austin, Marcus Spears, Gerald Sensabaugh, and Stephen Bowen have to be retained in my opinion. The rest of the guys are expendable and the Cowboys could go either way with them depending on what they think of the players from last year's draft and what they plan to do in this years draft. I expect the Cowboys to make offers to the majority of the RFA's to cover their bases in the event that things don't go as planned in the draft. Then some of them may be cut or traded if the Cowboys find better options.

Time to Re-Evaluate Expectations for Roy Williams

Roy Williams didn't come close to meeting the expectations that the team, the media and the fans had for him last year. He even admitted that he didn't meet his own expectations. We all know this to be true. Let's accept that as a fact and move forward. I have grown tired of hearing about his contract and the numbers he produced last season. There is no excuse for what happened last year. The only thing that Roy Williams and Tony Romo can do at this point is improve next season.

Miles Austin is the clear cut #1 receiver on the roster now. We still have to hope that another team doesn't do anything crazy to steal him away from the Cowboys but those odds are very slim. Miles will most likely be back next season. So that means that Roy Williams will continue in his role as the #2 receiver. You can talk about moving him down on the depth chart all you want but I think we all know that isn't going to happen. The Cowboys are going to put him on the field unless someone outplays him consistently for a long period of time. But no one will get enough opportunities to prove they are better because Roy will be on the field. Right or wrong, that is what is going to happen.

So I want to establish some realistic expectations for Roy Williams next year. He isn't going to catch 100 passes for 1400 yards and 15 TD's. For what Jerry paid to get Roy we should be able to expect that but it is obvious we can't. So what can we expect then?

The one bright spot for Roy Williams last season was his ability to get the ball in the end zone. Roy's numbers last year were embarrassing for the most part. He had 38 catches for 596 yards and 7 TD's. But reaching for positives he averaged 15.7 yards per reception which is solid. 76% of his receptions went for first downs (that was 13th in the NFL by the way). And he averaged a touchdown for every 5.4 receptions. Those two stats are what I feel can be worked to Roy's advantage. He is a big physical receiver. He doesn't get separation from defenders, but he can go up and get the ball or use his body to shield defenders from the ball. So he needs to be a 3rd down/red zone specialist.

Roy probably won't catch 80 balls next year. But I think 60 is a realistic goal. And he isn't going to get 1400 yards. But 900 would be a good number if Miles Austin is really the guy he appears to be. The important statistics for Roy Williams are going to be third down receptions and touchdowns. I'd like to see him maintain or improve his first down conversion rate. That would mean that of his 60 receptions he should be converting first downs on at least 46 of those receptions. I could live with that. And most importantly, Roy Williams needs to be the red zone threat he was paid to be. If he continues to score at his 2009 rate, that would mean 11+ touchdowns. 11+ TD's sounds pretty good to me.

So tell me, would you be happy to see Roy Williams put up 60 receptions for 900 yards and 11 TD's? I think I would be happy with that as long as that happens while Miles Austin and Jason Witten continue to operate as the top two passing options in the offense. Most teams would die to have their third receiving option put up numbers like I projected. I know he is paid to do more, but we have to get past that fact. The Cowboys did overpay for him in terms of money and draft picks, but it is time to maximize his talents in the offense.

Hold Your Breath on Miles Austin

I'm sure everyone is aware of the situation with Miles Austin at this point. Barring a last minute deal to save the current labor agreement between the players and the owners Miles Austin will be a restricted free agent when free agency kicks off in March.

So that means the Cowboys will have a few options on how to protect Miles Austin so he remains with the team. Stephen Jones made a statement today that basically eliminates the thought of the Cowboys using the franchise tag to protect Miles. So it looks like the Cowboys will use the highest tender offer to attempt to keep Miles for at least one more year. The Cowboys are guaranteed a first and third round draft pick if any other team signs him. In addition, the Cowboys would have the right to match any offer another team makes before he could join another team.

It appears that the Cowboys will most likely get away with the move to use the highest tender offer as opposed to the franchise tag. A team is highly unlikely to be willing to give up and first and third round pick in addition to making an astronomical offer that the Cowboys would not be willing to match.

But the one issue that could arise is the use of the dreaded "poison pill" clause in an offer to Miles Austin. What a team could do is put a clause in the offer that guarantees that he plays X amount of games within a certain state. So say Daniel Snyder wanted to prevent the Cowboys from matching his offer. He could put a clause in the contract that states that Miles Austin is guaranteed to play 8 games per year in the state of Maryland. Obviously the Cowboys could not match that offer since it would be impossible for the Cowboys to make the same guarantee.

Now there is no rule against the use of the "poison pill". But there is supposedly a gentleman's agreement between all of the league owners and general managers not to use the "poison pill" in a contract offer. Unfortunately with no actual rule you have to hope that all of the league owners will keep their word. A renegade owner like Daniel Snyder or Al Davis could make a crazy move and then the Cowboys would be out of luck.

I'm trying not to worry too much about the worst case scenario. Jerry Jones has stated that he is going to make sure that Miles Austin returns to the team next season. Jerry isn't the type of guy who doesn't get what he wants when it comes to players. Jerry has said that he plans to get Miles Austin signed to a long term deal either during the offseason or during the season next year. I have very little doubt that Miles will be suiting up for the Cowboys next season. But there is that tiny chance that the Cowboys could lose him. It would be a major blow to the team to lose Miles Austin. Let's hope it doesn't happen.