Blown Opportunity

The Cowboys had everything going their way last night. They were up 14 points in the 4th quarter and seemed in control of the game. And then everything went wrong. It almost seems as though this team has forgotten how to win games in clutch moments. It was going to take a total collapse by the Cowboys to let the Jets back into the game and that is exactly what happened.

Now I'm not going to blame the entire game on Tony Romo. But it is awfully difficult not to. The blocked punt was as much to blame for the 4th quarter melt down as anything else. But the goal line fumble with the Cowboys poised to go up by 14 or at least 10 points halfway through the 4th quarter was disastrous. And the late interception thrown by Romo was possibly the worst play of his career. When he threw that ball I yelled out "What the f*!% was that?" And I'm still saying the same thing to myself today.

Not only was the pass bad but I sincerely wonder what in the world Dez Bryant was doing on that play. He didn't fire off the ball, didn't really run any sort of defined route, and didn't make much of an effort to tackle Revis after he picked off the ball. If Dez was hurt that badly either he should have taken himself out of the game or the coaches should have. I honestly put half the fault on Dez for the interception and half on Romo. Romo clearly forced the ball against the wrong coverage. But it sure seemed like he expected Dez to come back for that throw. Both guys should be ashamed of that play.

In the end I have to remind myself it was only one game. But it would have been such a huge win. And it is becoming so common that Romo pulls something like this in big moments of big games that I am starting to just expect it to happen. I love Romo. I think he is talented and a great team player. But enough is enough with these boneheaded plays. At some point it has to sink in to him that he has to play smart. The fumble in the red zone was inexcusable. You have to throw that one away and take the field goal. That is football 101.

You have to give the defense a lot of credit. The Jets never really got a good running game going. And their passing wasn't much to talk about until both Scandrick and Jenkins were off the field in the 4th quarter. They made play after play to keep the Cowboys in the game. But the offense and special teams failed them when they put up a winning effort. Rob Ryan deserves a lot of credit for getting so much out of his undermanned defense. And Sean Lee had another game similar to last season against the Colts that hints that he could be something special. Let's hope there is more where that came from.

I know Jason Garrett is saying all the right things about the team playing hard and showing a lot of heart. But I hope he is laying into Tony Romo behind closed doors about some of the decisions that he made late in the game. At some point the light has to come on for Romo or we are going to have to expect the same late game antics for 4-5 more years. For some reason he has to be reminded of the consequences of playing recklessly about once a season. At least it happened in week 1 so hopefully it will be the last time this season.

The season isn't over. It just feels like it is. There are 15 games to go. The Cowboys are going to have to win a game somewhere in the schedule that they were expected to lose to make up for letting this one slip away. I can only hope that this game serves as a lesson to the team in how to handle big moments in big games. And as much as some people hate to hear it, this team will only go as far as Tony Romo takes them. I sure hope this was the game that finally convinced him to play smarter.

Cowboys @ Jets

It is finally here. The 2011 season kicks off for the Dallas Cowboys Sunday night against the Jets. The Cowboys will have to battle the Jets and a very highly charged crowd thanks to the September 11 ceremonies prior to the game. It is already a tall task to ask the young offensive line of the Dallas Cowboys to take on Rex Ryan's complex defense. Now they can add extreme crowd noise to the list of things to overcome for the Cowboys.

If you break this game down into a position by position battle it appears that the Cowboys are over-matched. But I think that simply matching player for player to analyze a game simplifies things too much. There are some intangible factors that are difficult to account for in any NFL game.

I'll start with the traditional look at things. The Cowboys offensive line has to be one of the biggest concerns heading into the game. Clearly they will be under fire as Rex Ryan will undoubtedly throw everything but the kitchen sink at them to try to cause confusion. But what it being discounted here is what a good game plan can do to an overly aggressive defense. Running the ball effectively will keep the defense honest. And the screen game that Jason Garrett plans to use regularly this year helps keep a team honest on defense because they can't simply let loose and go straight after the quarterback on passing downs. If Tyron Smith is able to play I feel like the offensive line can do a good enough job to give the Cowboys a chance to win.

On defense for the Cowboys there are major concerns. The run defense has been terrible all preseason long. I'm hoping the return of Marcus Spears will help solidify the run defense, but I'm not sure he'll be enough to be the difference maker. The other concern has to be the starting cornerbacks. Mike Jenkins appears ready to go after hyper-extending his knee on Wednesday. But Terence Newman is out. Fortunately for the Cowboys the Jets are a run first team. But you can expect them to take more shots down the field knowing that the Cowboys secondary is vulnerable to the big play. While Mark Sanchez gets a lot of press because he starts for a New York team he really isn't a player to fear. I think the key to the entire game is the ability of the Cowboys to effectively stop the running attack of the Jets.

On special teams David Buehler should eliminate any possible kick returns for the Jets. And the Cowboys have possible the best punter in the NFL in Matt McBriar. The concern on special teams is whether Dan Bailey will be able to handle the pressure of kicking at the NFL level. He did a good job in the preseason but kicking on the road with the crowd in a frenzy will be a new world for him. At least the Cowboys can fall back on the wildly inconsistent Buehler if Bailey completely loses his nerve. Don't discount the game changing ability of Dez Bryant on punt returns. I don't think the Cowboys will hesitate to use him on a punt return or two if he can be a difference maker.

What excites me about the Cowboys chances more than anything is the atmosphere that Jason Garrett has created with the team. Don't forget how the Cowboys were able to win seemingly unwinnable games last season with Jon Kitna and even Stephen McGee playing quarterback. And even when they did lose with Garrett running the show the games were very close. Coaching can make a big difference in the NFL. Hey, Bill Parcells went 10-6 with Quincy Carter and a terrible roster and qualified for the playoffs in 2003. Coaching can make all the difference in the world.

And for that reason I am picking the Cowboys to pull of a shocker on Sunday. I think Jason Garrett will try to control the clock with a heavy dose of running and a short passing attack. By controlling the ball Garrett can help hide the defensive flaws that still exist while the players continue to learn Rob Ryan's scheme. As long as the Cowboys avoid more than one or two turnovers they should be able to keep the game close. And I think the Cowboys will pull it out 20-17 in a very close, back-and-forth game. Call me a homer or overly optimistic if you want, but there is something special about Jason Garrett as a head coach that I think a lot of people are about the learn.

Three Scenarios for Miles Austin

With the Jets sudden interest in Miles Austin it would seem that the Cowboys have a big decision to make in the next few days. Depending on how serious the Jets are about getting Austin on their team the Cowboys may be forced to decide exactly how much Austin is worth to the team. I see three possible scenarios playing out.

Scenario #1 - Austin Gets No Offer from the Jets
This would be the easiest scenario for the Cowboys but also probably the least likely. The Jets are going to meet with Austin and his agent and they may decide that he isn't worth a second round pick and/or the amount of money it would take to prevent the Cowboys from matching the offer. If that happens then it would be fairly certain that Miles Austin would have to tuck his tail between his legs and sign his restricted tender offer for (only?) $1.545 million. If only we all had that fallback option in our lives.

Scenario #2 - Austin Agrees to a Contract the Cowboys Won't Match
This is an entirely plausible scenario especially consider that the Jets must be pretty serious about bringing him in if they are meeting with him knowing it will cost a 2nd round pick and probably require a contract much bigger than his career numbers would justify. I think Jerry Jones will match an offer from the Jets within reason, but if the Jets are willing to grossly overpay for a guy with 18 career receptions then we might be watching him play for the Jets next season. The big question would be how much it would take for Jerry to let Miles walk. I wish I knew the answer but I doubt if he'll go much higher than the contract numbers for Patrick Crayton (4 years, $14 million).

Scenario #3 - Austin Signs a Long Term Deal to Stay with the Cowboys
I think this is obviously the most likely of all of the outcomes. The Cowboys will be in serious need of wide receiver depth if they can't get Austin re-signed. It was one thing to lose him with T.O. on the roster but his value has increased exponentially since T.O. has been cut. I hope the Cowboys can lock him up for 4 or 5 years at a reasonable salary. Again, I am looking at Patrick Crayton's contract as a reasonable amount. The plus side would be that if he really does break out this season and we get him signed to a Crayton-type deal then it would be a bargain.

The bottom line is that how this all plays out will have a huge impact on how the Cowboys approach the draft and the rest of free agency. If Miles goes to the Jets then the Cowboys will have 2 second round picks and probably enough ammunition to trade into the late first round. It would also probably move wide receiver to the top of the draft priority and/or it would put the Cowboys in the market for a free agent wide receiver. I am expecting Austin to be back but the Cowboys will still have a lot of options to fill the hole in the roster if the Jets blow the Cowboys out of the water with a big contract offer.