Monday, November 16, 2009

A Bad Loss, But the Sky is Not Falling

It was an ugly game. The Cowboys played a stinker in what could have been a defining moment in the season. With the Eagles losing to the Chargers it could have been a two game lead in the NFC East. That didn't happen. We all need to get over it.

Sure, it was terrible. Just when they had us all believing they had turned the corner they gave us a reminder of why everyone is always skeptical about the Cowboys. For some reason they just can't seem to handle prosperity. I don't know what it is, but it is almost like you can feel it coming with this team every now and then. I have to believe part of it is that Wade Phillips isn't knocking these guys down to size when times are good. When you are winning you have to continue to work just as hard if not harder to succeed because you get a target on your back.

I don't want to go into too many specifics and do too much finger pointing because you can point to just about every player and point out mistakes. The Miles Austin/Tony Romo near touchdown on the opening drive would have completely changed the game. Roy Williams had a terrible fumble and a dropped pass on a perfectly thrown ball. The offensive line let free rushers get after Tony Romo all day long. Jason Garrett abandoned the run. Nick Folk missed a field goal. Jason Witten missed a block to cause a sack. Orlando Scandrick was penalized several times. The officiating was terrible. And on and on and on.

The Cowboys have to correct the mistakes in the game and move on. If they let a game like this sink in for too long they might doubt themselves. I might be naive, but I think it was just one of those days. Nothing ever came together for endless reasons. As Tony Romo has been preaching, they need to learn from the game and get better. I just hope they can find a way to prevent a clunker like this happening again this season. I'll give them one horrible game, but they can't afford any more like that game.

The worst news from the game to me were the injuries. Marc Columbo is out for at least the regular season and probably until next year. Ken Hamlin is out 3-4 weeks with a sprained ankle. Mike Jenkins has a severely bruised biceps but should be ok. Kyle Kosier and Flozell Adams both have minor ankle sprains. David Beuhler has a bruised and possible broken pinkie toe on his kicking foot. The only positive is that most of the injuries appear to be relatively minor, but the injury bug finally hit. I knew the day was coming that guys would get hurt but it just seemed to be an endless parade of guys laying on the turf getting tended to by the trainers.

With all of that bad news I think it is important to remember where the Cowboys stand. They are 6-3 and leading the NFC East. Two very winnable games coming up should allow them to push the record to 8-3 heading into the final stretch of the season. Even with the injuries on Sunday the Cowboys are still in better shape than most teams in the league. Tony Romo is still healthy and I'll take my chances with him at QB any day. Don't forget how important it is to have your franchise quarterback at 100%. All the preseason goals are still possible, but no one will give them any breaks. The Cowboys have to go out and earn it on the field starting with the Redskins on Sunday.

Friday, November 13, 2009

How to Beat the Packers

When the week started all signs pointed to a victory for Dallas this week. Over the course of the last few days there has been nonstop news and controversy coming out of Green Bay. The Packers held a players meeting to get themselves back on track. The coach has been accused of having a stadium employee fired. The fan base has become restless about the performance of the Packers. It feels like the Packers are backed into a corner. This has turned into the biggest game of the season for the Packers. Beat the Cowboys and they can turn things around. Lose and it would appear that they will fold up shop for the season as they fade into obscurity.

I initially had a great feeling after the great road victory against the Eagles. Now I have an uneasy feeling the if the Cowboys don't bring their "A game" they will be in for a tough fight. Road games are never easy. The home field advantage the Packers usually have is the cold weather. While it will be cold compared to Dallas, the forecast is for a high of 47 on Sunday and a low of 31. Cold but not anything that should impact either team. So my uneasy feeling is purely based on the vibes coming out of Green Bay that this is the defining point of the season.

The Cowboys will have to come out quickly to keep the Packers from getting too much confidence early in the game. I've said this before, but the key when you are the better team is to show them early so they don't start believing that they can win. Start out quickly and the crowd might just turn on their beloved Packers. Who knows, the Packers might implode before our eyes if the Cowboys jump out early.

Turnovers are always a big deal and the Cowboys will obviously need to limit them again. But more importantly, I think they need to force some turnovers. Aaron Rodgers is expected to throw more quick passes this week to limit the number of sacks he has been taking. If the Cowboys can pick one or two off early in the game then it will force the Packers back to the deep ball approach. That puts the advantage back in the corner of the Cowboys because they'll be able to get to Rodgers if he holds the ball.

I think this is the week that the running game gets back on track. The Cowboys have been doing a good job taking what the opposing defenses are giving up. The Cowboys have been heavy on the pass over the last few weeks and I have to believe that the Packers are going to try to prevent the big pass plays. That means leaving safeties deep which opens up the running game. I expect a heavy dose of Marion Barber, Felix Jones, and Tashard Choice. Of course the Packers may believe that Charles Woodson and Al Harris can shut down the outside receivers with their tough bump-and-run (aka defensive holding) so the Cowboys may have to hit a few passes to loosen them up for the run. I just hope we don't have the type of officials who let Al Harris hold all game long without throwing a flag.

One of the biggest helps to the defense has been the ability of the special teams units to make the opposition drive the length of the field. That will need to continue this week. If the Packers are forced to drive the length of the field then the Cowboys can afford to give up some quick passes without surrendering points.

For some reason it feels like this is going to be a close game. I expect the Cowboys to win but not like most people seem to believe. My pick is a 27-24 victory for the Cowboys in a tight, hard fought game.

Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Cowboys Need to Keep Adding to the Win Column

So here the Cowboys sit at the halfway point at 6-2. Not only that but they are also 5-1 in NFC games and they have the tiebreaker over Atlanta and a road win at Philadelphia in their pockets. Not bad for half a season's work. But there is still half a season to go.

The Cowboys have been relatively injury free so far this season. Sure, Marion Barber and Felix Jones are fighting through minor injuries. Gerald Sensabaugh missed a game with a broken thumb and is still playing with a cast. Andre Gurode and Ken Hamlin are nicked up after the Philly game. But compared to the injury disaster that was the 2008 season there is really nothing to complain about. My worry is that it only takes one game or, in some cases, one play to change everything. That is why they need to keep winning the games they are supposed to while they still have all hands on deck.

The December schedule has been dissected to no end by nearly everyone and we all can see that things are going to get much tougher down the stretch. If the Cowboys can piece together 3 more wins over the next few weeks they can head into the brutal stretch at 9-2. Even going 2-1 over the next 3 games would be ok since they would sit at 8-3 and in no worse than a tie for first in the NFC East. It is probably going to take 10 wins to clinch a playoff birth and at least 11 to win the division. If the Cowboys can bank a few more wins now then they can afford to drop a few late season games without destroying the season.

Winning breeds more winning. We can all see that the team that takes the field these days for the Cowboys is very different from the team that walked on the field in week 1. I think part of that is due to the added confidence that comes with putting together a winning streak. The more times they win the more they are going to believe in themselves. I think the Philadelphia win is going to put a swagger back in their step that we haven't seen since the 13-3 season in 2007. I think they are a more mature team this time around who will handle the media attention better. Romo is a seasoned veteran and he seems to understand that he is going to have to continue to "grind" every day to make sure things stay on the right path. It seems like the whole team gets it right now.

I hope we aren't being set up for a disappointment again but I don't think we are. Things feel different this time. Sure, injuries could knock the wind out of their sails faster than anything else, but I don't think complacency is going to be the downfall. Keith Brooking won't allow it. Jay Ratliff won't let it happen. Tony Romo has worked his tail off and isn't going to fade into the abyss without a fight.

With the great start to the season all that the Cowboys need to do to make sure they are in the tournament is win the games they are favored to win. I see 4 very winnable games remaining and 4 tough games. If they win the 4 winnable games that is 10 wins. Split the other two and we are looking at a 12 win season. All of the preseason goals are there for the taking. The Cowboys need to just keep doing what they are doing right now.

Monday, November 9, 2009

Sweet Revenge

The players and coaches can say this game didn't have anything to do with last season all they want. We all know that when something like the 44-6 season finale happens to you it is a big deal. I guarantee part of the reason there was so much excitement after the win last night was because the team felt like they finally got past the disaster last season. I know it felt better than any win they have had in a long time to me. I'm going to enjoy this one just a little bit more this week because it came against the Eagles and it shut up their obnoxious fans for at least a few weeks.

It was a hard fought game by both teams. Romo finally got things going with Roy Williams so that storyline can die down for a while and hopefully forever. Miles Austin made the big play to win the game again on a perfectly thrown ball in crunch time in the 4th quarter. The defense contained the big playmakers of the Eagles all night with the exception of a long gain on a screen pass to LeRon McCoy. Special teams never let DeSean Jackson get anything going on punt returns and kick returns were minimal with the exception of a return for a touchdown called back thanks to a holding penalty.

What went right: The defense was in McNabb's face for the majority of the game and definitely had a hand in his subpar play. The two interceptions were huge and they lead to 10 points for the Cowboys. Tony Romo did a great job choosing his moments and he took the sack a few times rather than risk a turnover. He threw for over 300 yards and made a perfect throw on a double move to Miles Austin late in the game for a touchdown. Roy Williams looked good for the first time since the season opener against Tampa Bay. Jay Ratliff was a beast in the middle stopping the run in the second half and coming up with 2 sacks. Don't discount the job that Matt McBriar did preventing DeSean Jackson from getting any big punt returns.

What went wrong: I'm sure Tony Romo would like to have the ball back that was intended for Jason Witten that got intercepted. It was a bad read and a bad pass. The penalties were still a challenge for the offense to overcome. They had to overcome a lot of their own mistakes. The officials stunk all night long. They made bad calls against both teams but a few really stood out for me. The Eagle's touchdown pass came after Brent Celek clearly pushed off from Gerald Sensabaugh to get open in the back of the endzone but there was no call. Jason Witten was called for offensive pass interference for doing basically nothing. And the kicker was the Asante Samuel play in the end zone at the end of the half when he held the arm of Roy Williams on a sure touchdown pass. I think the calls evened out overall with the exception of the Asante Samuel play. David Beuhler didn't have his best night on kickoffs as he struggled to get the depth on his kicks we have come to expect.

Overall, going on the road against a division opponent and getting a win in a high pressure game was huge for the team going forward. This year's version of the team has found the formula for making the plays when it counts. They struggled early in the season in the big moments but they have now won a couple of games when the chips were down in the fourth quarter. 6-2 is a great record at the halfway point, but it is only the halfway point. But the Cowboys are in a great position heading into the second half of the season to not only make the playoffs but compete for a division title.

Next up is Green Bay on Sunday. They are only 4-4 but their offense is dangerous. I hope the players aren't going to buy into the media hype that is sure to build this week now that the team has proven that it is a force to be reckoned with. I don't want to look too far ahead, but a seven game streak is a real possibility if the Cowboys can take care of business this week.

Saturday, November 7, 2009

How to Beat the Eagles

We've all seen the games between the Cowboys over the last few years. They are usually close and there are usually big plays for both teams throughout the game. Last year's season finale was the obvious exception. But with the Eagles adding another play maker in Jeremy Maclin this season and the Cowboys discovering the talent of Miles Austin it seems like both teams are primed for a shootout. While that would be entertaining for fans who like scoring I think the Cowboys would be making a mistake by playing that type of game.

I don't mean the Cowboys shouldn't run their offense. I think what they have been doing over the last month is exactly what they need to do in this game. Mix the pass and run, play safe at times and go for the big play in the right moments. The main thing is that the game has to remain relatively close or the Cowboys will be forced to open things up which could mean a shootout or it could mean disaster if Tony Romo isn't having one of his good games.

So how do they keep the game from turning into a shootout? I believe the key to stopping the Eagles is to contain DeSean Jackson. I know Westbrook, Maclin and McNabb all present their own challenges, but the Eagles have lived by the big play this season. They don't have a single scoring drive that has lasted over 5 minutes. That means that when the score the drive usually involves one or more big plays.

There are two places I worry about Jackson. Punt returns are a big concern just because, at some point, the Cowboys are going to have to punt the ball to him. It is going to be vitally important that the punt coverage gets down the field quickly and bottle him up before he gets in the open. If he gets in the open field he is gone. The other concern is the big pass play. That is where the pass rush becomes the key to the game. The only way McNabb can throw 50 yard bombs to Jackson is if the Cowboys give him time to let the play develop. Demarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer need to be in McNabb's face all night long. I'm sure Wade Phillips will be dialing up blitzes to prevent the deep balls, but the best plan is to get your pass rushers to beat their blockers one-on-one without blitzing.

If the Cowboys can prevent the big plays in the Eagles passing game and continue their improved special teams play I believe they will win. Donovan McNabb is not an accurate passer and he will make mistakes if the Cowboys pressure him. And not only get to him but bring him down once they get there. McNabb is a big guy and he is hard to bring down so the defense needs to wrap up when they get to the quarterback.

I believe Tony Romo has turned the corner and he will continue to play good football this week. That means that the Cowboys will score enough points to win provided that the Eagles don't hang a big number on the scoreboard. I predict a 31-20 victory for the Cowboys.

Wednesday, November 4, 2009

A Win This Week Would Mean...

A lot, but not as much as some would have you believe. Sure, a win would put the Cowboys in first place in the NFC East and in the driver's seat for a playoff push in the second half of the season. Not only that, but the Cowboys would have a four game winning streak and confidence in themselves heading into the tougher part of their schedule.

But beating the Eagles Sunday night doesn't guarantee anything except a 6-2 record at the halfway point. Six wins would be great but no team is going to qualify for the playoffs with only six wins. The Cowboys will probably still need at least four more wins in the last eight games even if they do beat the Eagles.

I'm trying not to treat this game as the Superbowl because the bottom line is that even a loss doesn't mean that the season is over. A loss would put the Cowboys at 5-3 which isn't terrible, but it would make a playoff trip difficult because they would probably have to go at least 5-3 over a much tougher second half schedule.

If the Cowboys really are as good as I am starting to believe then they should be able to go to Philadelphia and win. Are the Eagles really that good? Are the Cowboys really that good? This game will help answer both of those questions but things could be totally different by the time the two teams meet again in the season finale. Just ask the Giants...they were 5-0 a few weeks ago and everyone had them in the Superbowl. A few weeks later they are trying to put Humpty Dumpty back together again.

I will definitely enjoy the game if the Cowboys beat the Eagles and shut up their obnoxious fans. But the last few years have taught me that they don't crown the NFL champions in November.

Monday, November 2, 2009

Now We're Rolling!

A few weeks back I was hoping that the last second win against the Chiefs might be the spark the Dallas Cowboys needed to get a winning streak going. Well, here we are about three and a half weeks later and things seem a lot more settled in the world of the Cowboys. Tony Romo is on the longest interception free streak of his career, three games. Miles Austin has now performed as a top receiver for three games in a row. The defense is creating turnovers and getting pressure on the quarterback. And the special teams is making it a habit of making big plays and preventing big returns by the opposition.

I was at the game Sunday so I had a different perspective than usual for the game this week. Obviously it was complete domination, but I saw a team that just might be a real contender this year. Sure, it was the Seahawks, but there was no doubt that the Cowboys were in a different class than the Seahawks. Now the real test will begin as the Cowboys will travel over the next two weeks to Philadelphia and Green Bay. If they come out of those games with at least a split then I think we can start talking about the Cowboys being a playoff team. I want to look back one last time at the Seattle game and enjoy the win before shifting my focus to the Eagles...even though I am already pretty well focused on the upcoming game.

What went right: Well, pretty much everything. The passing game was very good once again. The Seahawks sent blitz after blitz at Tony Romo and the offensive line, tight ends, and running backs stonewalled them for almost the entire game. Romo had ample time to find his receivers all over the field. He completed passes to 10 different receivers and had three touchdowns and no interceptions. The running game wasn't great but it was certainly good enough to keep the Seahawks honest. Marion Barber looked almost full strength and Felix Jones is starting to seem a little more durable (by that I mean I'm not holding my breath every time he gets hit because I fear an injury). The defense pretty well dominated the Seahawks. They did give up a few big pass plays but Matt Hasslebeck is a very good quarterback and the big plays he made were near perfect passes. The secondary broke up several passes and the running game of Seattle was basically non-existent after the first quarter. And Patrick Crayton returned another punt for a touchdown. I'm going to have to admit that I was wrong about him as a returner. With adequate blocking he can make a big return because he knows how to read the blocks ahead of him.

What went wrong: From my perspective in the stadium I could see exactly what was happening between Tony Romo and Roy Williams. It appeared that most of the incompletions between the pair were a result of different reads by the two players on option routes. The fact that Roy is the only one having a problem with Tony tells me that the problem lies with Roy Williams. There was one pass in the second half where Tony correctly read that the safety was jumping the short route so he expected Roy to break deep. Tony threw what would have been a touchdown but Roy cut off his route and ran straight into the coverage instead of away from it. The "cute" playcalling of Jason Garrett made one appearance late in the game. With a 28 point lead and about 9 minutes to go, Garret called for a play action pass that resulted in a fumble by Tony Romo. It was a completely unneccesary play at that point in the game and, in the stadium, they showed the displeasure of Wade Phillips on the sideline. After the Seahawks scored, Wade went over to Jason Garrett and appeared to tell him something with the words run the ball in the phrase.

What needs to improve: The running game hasn't been the same since the Cowboys had Felix Jones and Marion Barber go down with injuries. They both seem to be getting close to full strength, but you can see that they both don't quite have their usual burst back yet. The Cowboys will need to be able to control the ball against the Eagles so both backs need to be ready to go this week. Obviously, Tony Romo and Roy Williams need to start clicking. I know it will happen at some point, but this is starting to get ridiculous. I think Roy needs to realize that Tony always looks for the big play first so he should always take that option on his routes when in doubt. The Cowboys can't afford any wasted plays against the Eagles so Jason Garrett needs to be smart with the playcalling especially late in the game with a lead.

My stadium impressions: I'm posting a view from my seats along with this entry. Although my seats were pretty high up (section 433), I had a great view of the field and I didn't feel like I was too far from the action like I had feared. The video boards obviously are amazing and I noticed a lot of fans were watching the board rather than the action on the field. I prefer the field view at the stadium because you can see so much more of the offensive and defensive strategy play out when you can see the entire field in front of you. The stadium itself is an absolute palace. The concessions and bathrooms are easily accessible. I don't leave my seat during the game so I don't know about wait times during half time or between quarters, but before the game there were no lines for the bathrooms or at the concession stands.

My biggest gripe about the stadium is the sound system. I don't know if it was where I was sitting, but I could hardly make out the stadium announcer calls after the plays and the music sounded atrocious due to the different speakers hitting me with the same sounds at different times. Things might be better down in the high dollar seats, but, up high, the sound system is flat out terrible.

The coolest thing I saw at the stadium was the opening of the giant glass doors in the endzone before the game. At 10 am when fans were allowed to enter, security lined up in front of the doors. Dramatic music fired up and then the doors slowly opened to unveil the center of my football universe. It was the neatest pre-game moment I can ever remember at a stadium. It took a few minutes for the doors to open and then the fans streamed into the stadium when the line of security gave the ok.