Still Hoping for a Win

I'm certainly not expecting an upset win this weekend. In fact, I would be fooling myself if I tried to say I have any realistic expectation of the Cowboys winning the game against the Packers on Sunday night.

But that doesn't mean I can't hope. The Cowboys have lost four straight games and the negativity has become demoralizing. I'm sick of the bad jokes being directed at the team and at me specifically. I know one win won't stop that from happening any more this season but it will at least quiet it down.

I can't simply throw in the towel and start hoping for the #1 pick in the draft. Giving up is just simply not in my DNA. And I hope the Cowboys players feel the same way. Last week didn't indicate that the players are still trying but maybe they will show some pride this week.

Like Roy Williams said, the season isn't completely over until the Cowboys are mathematically eliminated. They still could technically win 9 straight games and make the playoffs. It isn't likely, but there is still a chance. And I won't give up on that tiny glimmer of hope until it is completely gone.

With that said, I am still expecting a loss. I think the players will give a better showing this week, but beating the Packers at Green Bay is too much to ask of this team this season. I predict a 27-17 loss for the Cowboys but I hope I am wrong.

Pro Bowls Are Great, Playoff Wins Are Better

Congratulations to all of the 2009 Dallas Cowboys pro bowlers. I'm happy for all of the guys who made it but I'd like to save the individual celebrations for the offseason. I'm worried about the Eagles game Sunday, playoff matchups, and playoff wins right now.

I hope the players realize how important Sunday is going to be. I know the Cowboys are in the playoffs no matter what at this point but I am hoping for a win Sunday to guarantee at least one home playoff game. The way the top NFC teams are playing right now it looks like a #3 or #4 seed could end up with a home NFC championship game. I think it is vitally important that the Cowboys secure one of those two spots.

But at the same time I'm also hoping that the best cast scenario does not play out to reward the Cowboys the #2 seed. I don't want the Cowboys to have a week to lose the momentum that they have worked so hard to get this December. We all saw what the bye week did to the team in 2007 and I don't want to see that play out again.

So my dream scenario for Sunday is for the Vikings to win to prevent the Cowboys from securing the #2 seed. I'd like to see the Cardinals lose which would give the Cowboys the #3 seed assuming they beat the Eagles. That would mean that the Cowboys could possibly host the NFC championship game assuming they make it that far. There is no guarantee that they'll win any playoff games but the Cowboys have as good a chance as anyone else this year.

A Bad Loss, But the Sky is Not Falling

It was an ugly game. The Cowboys played a stinker in what could have been a defining moment in the season. With the Eagles losing to the Chargers it could have been a two game lead in the NFC East. That didn't happen. We all need to get over it.

Sure, it was terrible. Just when they had us all believing they had turned the corner they gave us a reminder of why everyone is always skeptical about the Cowboys. For some reason they just can't seem to handle prosperity. I don't know what it is, but it is almost like you can feel it coming with this team every now and then. I have to believe part of it is that Wade Phillips isn't knocking these guys down to size when times are good. When you are winning you have to continue to work just as hard if not harder to succeed because you get a target on your back.

I don't want to go into too many specifics and do too much finger pointing because you can point to just about every player and point out mistakes. The Miles Austin/Tony Romo near touchdown on the opening drive would have completely changed the game. Roy Williams had a terrible fumble and a dropped pass on a perfectly thrown ball. The offensive line let free rushers get after Tony Romo all day long. Jason Garrett abandoned the run. Nick Folk missed a field goal. Jason Witten missed a block to cause a sack. Orlando Scandrick was penalized several times. The officiating was terrible. And on and on and on.

The Cowboys have to correct the mistakes in the game and move on. If they let a game like this sink in for too long they might doubt themselves. I might be naive, but I think it was just one of those days. Nothing ever came together for endless reasons. As Tony Romo has been preaching, they need to learn from the game and get better. I just hope they can find a way to prevent a clunker like this happening again this season. I'll give them one horrible game, but they can't afford any more like that game.

The worst news from the game to me were the injuries. Marc Columbo is out for at least the regular season and probably until next year. Ken Hamlin is out 3-4 weeks with a sprained ankle. Mike Jenkins has a severely bruised biceps but should be ok. Kyle Kosier and Flozell Adams both have minor ankle sprains. David Beuhler has a bruised and possible broken pinkie toe on his kicking foot. The only positive is that most of the injuries appear to be relatively minor, but the injury bug finally hit. I knew the day was coming that guys would get hurt but it just seemed to be an endless parade of guys laying on the turf getting tended to by the trainers.

With all of that bad news I think it is important to remember where the Cowboys stand. They are 6-3 and leading the NFC East. Two very winnable games coming up should allow them to push the record to 8-3 heading into the final stretch of the season. Even with the injuries on Sunday the Cowboys are still in better shape than most teams in the league. Tony Romo is still healthy and I'll take my chances with him at QB any day. Don't forget how important it is to have your franchise quarterback at 100%. All the preseason goals are still possible, but no one will give them any breaks. The Cowboys have to go out and earn it on the field starting with the Redskins on Sunday.

How to Beat the Packers

When the week started all signs pointed to a victory for Dallas this week. Over the course of the last few days there has been nonstop news and controversy coming out of Green Bay. The Packers held a players meeting to get themselves back on track. The coach has been accused of having a stadium employee fired. The fan base has become restless about the performance of the Packers. It feels like the Packers are backed into a corner. This has turned into the biggest game of the season for the Packers. Beat the Cowboys and they can turn things around. Lose and it would appear that they will fold up shop for the season as they fade into obscurity.

I initially had a great feeling after the great road victory against the Eagles. Now I have an uneasy feeling the if the Cowboys don't bring their "A game" they will be in for a tough fight. Road games are never easy. The home field advantage the Packers usually have is the cold weather. While it will be cold compared to Dallas, the forecast is for a high of 47 on Sunday and a low of 31. Cold but not anything that should impact either team. So my uneasy feeling is purely based on the vibes coming out of Green Bay that this is the defining point of the season.

The Cowboys will have to come out quickly to keep the Packers from getting too much confidence early in the game. I've said this before, but the key when you are the better team is to show them early so they don't start believing that they can win. Start out quickly and the crowd might just turn on their beloved Packers. Who knows, the Packers might implode before our eyes if the Cowboys jump out early.

Turnovers are always a big deal and the Cowboys will obviously need to limit them again. But more importantly, I think they need to force some turnovers. Aaron Rodgers is expected to throw more quick passes this week to limit the number of sacks he has been taking. If the Cowboys can pick one or two off early in the game then it will force the Packers back to the deep ball approach. That puts the advantage back in the corner of the Cowboys because they'll be able to get to Rodgers if he holds the ball.

I think this is the week that the running game gets back on track. The Cowboys have been doing a good job taking what the opposing defenses are giving up. The Cowboys have been heavy on the pass over the last few weeks and I have to believe that the Packers are going to try to prevent the big pass plays. That means leaving safeties deep which opens up the running game. I expect a heavy dose of Marion Barber, Felix Jones, and Tashard Choice. Of course the Packers may believe that Charles Woodson and Al Harris can shut down the outside receivers with their tough bump-and-run (aka defensive holding) so the Cowboys may have to hit a few passes to loosen them up for the run. I just hope we don't have the type of officials who let Al Harris hold all game long without throwing a flag.

One of the biggest helps to the defense has been the ability of the special teams units to make the opposition drive the length of the field. That will need to continue this week. If the Packers are forced to drive the length of the field then the Cowboys can afford to give up some quick passes without surrendering points.

For some reason it feels like this is going to be a close game. I expect the Cowboys to win but not like most people seem to believe. My pick is a 27-24 victory for the Cowboys in a tight, hard fought game.