Pro Bowls Are Great, Playoff Wins Are Better

Congratulations to all of the 2009 Dallas Cowboys pro bowlers. I'm happy for all of the guys who made it but I'd like to save the individual celebrations for the offseason. I'm worried about the Eagles game Sunday, playoff matchups, and playoff wins right now.

I hope the players realize how important Sunday is going to be. I know the Cowboys are in the playoffs no matter what at this point but I am hoping for a win Sunday to guarantee at least one home playoff game. The way the top NFC teams are playing right now it looks like a #3 or #4 seed could end up with a home NFC championship game. I think it is vitally important that the Cowboys secure one of those two spots.

But at the same time I'm also hoping that the best cast scenario does not play out to reward the Cowboys the #2 seed. I don't want the Cowboys to have a week to lose the momentum that they have worked so hard to get this December. We all saw what the bye week did to the team in 2007 and I don't want to see that play out again.

So my dream scenario for Sunday is for the Vikings to win to prevent the Cowboys from securing the #2 seed. I'd like to see the Cardinals lose which would give the Cowboys the #3 seed assuming they beat the Eagles. That would mean that the Cowboys could possibly host the NFC championship game assuming they make it that far. There is no guarantee that they'll win any playoff games but the Cowboys have as good a chance as anyone else this year.

Playoffs Baby!

They're in. It wasn't a great game by the offense but the defense pitched a shutout. I think we'll all take it even if the game left a lot to desired. The short yardage offense was terrible and Roy Williams is really starting to run out of chances to prove he isn't a bust. But we can't forget that the Cowboys are in the tournament and have a shot at the ultimate prize. They've won 2 straight December games after hearing about their December record for the last year.

So now a lot of things are on the line next week. Win and the Cowboys will win the NFC East and be guaranteed at least one home playoff game. Lose and they will go in as the #5 or #6 seed and play on the road. And a win would allow them to go into the playoffs on a roll for the first time in almost 15 years. They even still have an outside shot at the #2 seed which would give them a first round bye.

What went right: The offense got off to a great start and scored on their opening drive for the second week in a row. The defense shut the Redskins down and didn't allow a point. Sean Suisham was 2 for 2 on extra points and hit a short field goal. Jason Witten and Miles Austin showed they are extremely dangerous weapons in the passing game. Tony Romo continued to play good football. The Cowboys only had one turnover and that came on a tipped pass.

What went wrong: Roy Williams scored a TD but he dropped an easy ball and tipped another ball that was intercepted. The short yardage running game got stuffed countless times and several of the play calls were questionable. Pulling the guard and allowing Haynesworth a free path into the backfield is not a good idea. Jason Garrett made that mistake at least twice. And the last run play was just stuffed because Marion Barber missed the hole. The short yardage game has to be fixed ASAP.

I doubt that Wade Phillips will need any extra motivation for the game on Sunday but the lackluster showing by the offense will give him something to point to. The Cowboys need to get into playoff mode this week. Even if they have clinched the playoff they need to play like the season is on the line. A home playoff game would be a huge advantage and could be the difference between one and done and a run deep into the playoffs.

The Cowboys Have to Beat the Redskins

We finally saw the team we've all been hoping for against the Saints. The Cowboys were everything I believed they could be, minus the kicker, in their biggest win in four seasons. But the win will be meaningless if the Cowboys don't find a way to make the playoffs and win a playoff game.

There is a good chance that the Cowboys will have to win their last two games or the Giants can steal the last playoff spot from them. But two wins will give the Cowboys the NFC East title and a home playoff game. The last thing I want to see is the Cowboys in a position to hope for a loss by the Giants in the final week of the season. The Cowboys control their playoff life right now and they need to keep it that way.

So what do they need to do against the Redskins? It would be easy to say just show up to the game. But history and the game just a few weeks ago tells us otherwise. Wins against the Redskins never come easily. Even though we saw a terrible team play the Giants last week you can bet that the Redskins won't play two stinkers in a row. They'll be at the top of their game and it will be won or lost in the 4th quarter.

The Cowboys will need to continue to roll on offense and pressure the quarterback on defense. The kicker situation is going to be dicey for the rest of the year so the offense needs to put the ball in the endzone. If the Cowboys can knock Jason Campbell down a few times early I think he'll get flustered and make mistakes. The biggest thing the Cowboys need to do is take the wind out of the sails of the Redskins early in the game.

If the Cowboys can build on the momentum that they started with the win against the Saints the offense should be able to move the ball. But for some reason Jason Campbell usually plays very well against Dallas. I expect the game to be close into the 4th quarter until the Cowboys finish them off. I predict a 29-14 win for the Cowboys.

Keep Holding Your Breath on Field Goals

Well, the Cowboys finally made a move at kicker. I loved what Nick Folk did for the Cowboys for a couple of years but you can't ruin your season trying to let your kicker work out of a funk. I would have been fine with dumping him before the Saints game and waiting almost cost the Cowboys their biggest win in a long time.

I know a lot of people aren't too happy with Sean Suisham. I'm not too thrilled either but I have to believe he'll be better than Folk has been for the last six weeks. Suisham is 18 for 21 for the year which isn't bad until you look at the kicks he missed. He missed a kick to close out the game for the Redskins against the Cowboys. And then he missed a kick eerily similar to the kick that Folk missed against the Saints that would have sealed the game for the Redskins. So he seems to struggle when you need him the most.

But if he can at least be consistent on the other kicks it will be an upgrade. I still feel like I won't trust the kicking game for the rest of the season. Even extra points have become a stressful play at this point. If Suisham can come out and make all his kicks under 40 yards then I'll be happy with that. I just hope we don't need him to win the game as time expires this season.

It is sad to think that we all came into the season thinking the Cowboys had a great kicker and now that position is the biggest headache. I've got to believe that the offense will be going for it on forth down a lot more from here on out when they are in position for a long field goal.

Suisham certainly has to be motivated to perform well this week to prove to the Redskins that they made a mistake. But no matter what he does the Redskins made the right move at the time just like getting rid of Folk was the right move for Dallas. Some kickers just get messed up in the head and the only way they can get out of a funk is by having a break and finding a new team. Let's just hope that Suisham has had enough time to fix whatever was causing him to choke on the big kicks.

The Best Win in Years

My heart is still racing from the dramatic finish. But the magnitude of that win can't be overstated. That was the best win by the Dallas Cowboys since 2006 when they took down the undefeated Indianapolis Colts. Tony Romo played great. The defense kept one of the best offenses in NFL history to just 17 points. Demarcus Ware went from being carted off the field last week to playing like a defensive MVP this week. And they won when nearly everyone, including me, was expecting a loss.

So is the season saved? Not entirely, but that win gives the Cowboys a great shot to make the playoffs. They still might need to win out to secure a playoff birth depending on what the Giants do over the last three weeks, but they are in a much better spot now then they were a few hours ago. The only way this win really changes anything is if the great play continues for the rest of the season. There is no telling where this win will take them, but it gives them a great chance to get on a roll heading into the playoffs if they make it.

The only really bad moments in the game involved Roy Williams and Nick Folk. The Cowboys were still up by 14 points with the ball in the 4th quarter when Roy Williams dropped a sure first down on a slant route. The win may have been a lot easier if they could have at least milked more time off the clock. The Nick Folk field goal had to seal his fate. I have no confidence in him and I was saying on the last drive it was going to come down to him to seal the game. Sure enough it did. And sure enough he missed a field goal a high school kicker makes 95% of the time. That was ridiculous.

They can't wait for Folk to work through his problems anymore. They need to find a new kicker right now. He nearly lost the game tonight and the Cowboys had to fight to the end because he couldn't do his job.

I said heading into this game that the fans deserved to see their team win a big game. We've all waited a long time and we were overdue for a big win like the game tonight. Let's just hope it isn't another flash of greatness to be followed by a disappointing late season collapse. This year feels different than the last few. I might be drinking the kool-aid but I feel like they finally turned the corner tonight. We'll find out over the next two weeks.

Expecting a Loss, Hoping for a Win

Some have accused me of "drinking the kool-aid" over the last few days because I stated that I think the Cowboys can win the game tomorrow. And I still believe they can. That doesn't necessarily mean that I believe that they will, but I am going to hope that the Cowboys pull off the upset against all odds.

At some point the Cowboys are going to break through this ridiculous December barrier. A lot of fans, including myself, are sick and tired of the same story playing out every year. I think all of us who have stuck by our team through these tough times are due. The Cowboys are due for a big win...they are overdue. And the true fans deserve to see their team succeed after dealing with all of the Cowboy haters and bandwagon jumpers bashing our team.

This probably isn't the week for the breakthrough but it will be awfully sweet if the Cowboys knock the Saints from their pedestal. I'm predicting a loss this week. 34-21 for the Saints. This doesn't mean I won't be hoping for the best, but I am prepared for the worst. I hope my next blog entry is about how dumb I was to doubt my team.

Are the Saints Unbeatable?

A lot of people seem to believe that the Cowboys have no chance on Saturday. I'm not saying that the Cowboys will win the game, but I am saying that they have as good of a chance as anyone else to beat the Saints. The Saints have struggled to beat the Rams, the Redskins and the Falcons in recent games. Say what you want about the Cowboys, but they are better than all three of those teams.

So will the Cowboys win the game on Saturday? Time will tell. I'm not going into the game expecting a win but I'm hoping that the Cowboys will find a way to finally fire on all cylinders. A great game in all three phases will be necessary for the Cowboys to win.

The offense needs to go on long, time-consuming drives that end in touchdowns. The Saints are going to score points no matter how well the defense plays. So the Cowboys will need to put points on the scoreboard or they won't stand a chance. The offense has to score and they have to score touchdowns not field goals. The best defense in the game will be long drives to keep the ball away from the Saints offense as much as possible.

The defense needs to limit the big plays from the Saints offense. They Saints will score but the defense needs to make them earn every score they get. If they can go on long drives consistently throughout the game then it will be tough for the Cowboys to win. I don't think the Saints can put long drives together consistently from what I have seen from them. A lot of their scores come on big plays. Eliminate the big plays and the Saints can be beaten.

The special teams will have to play a good game if the Cowboys are going to win. They can't allow any big returns from the Saints. If the special teams can give the Saints bad field position regularly during the game then they will help limit the scoring for the Saints. I'm especially concerned about Reggie Bush on punt returns. He is a dynamic returner and the punt coverage team will have to stay disciplined when he has the ball. If the Cowboys are forced to kick a field goal then we all need to keep our fingers crossed that Nick Folk finds his groove.

And most importantly, the Cowboys can't turn the ball over. Tony Romo needs to play at the top of his game. If Romo has a bad game then you can count on a loss. Romo needs to protect the ball while still finding a way to make big plays down the field to keep the defense honest. The running backs need to hold onto the ball. The Saints' defense creates a lot of turnovers and often returns them for scores. The Cowboys can't afford to give the Saints any cheap points.

I look at the game like this. Are the Saints the best team of all time? To me they aren't even close. So the thought of them running the table is a little ridiculous to me. The Saints will lose at some point this year. Sure they are 13-0 but their defense is average so the Cowboys should be able to move the ball against them. But the Cowboys will have to solve their scoring problems or they won't stand much of a chance. I just hope the game doesn't come down to a field goal since it looks like Nick Folk will still be the kicker this week.